Fisher Investments Marketminder

Fisher Investments MarketMinder Article – Our Eye on Earnings

With Q1 Corporate earnings in the limelight this week, there has been some interesting commentary from my company, Fisher investments.  On 4/20/11, they published an article on the e-zine Fisher Investments MarketMinder called “Our Eye on Earnings“. This is market perspective with a Fisher Investments eye, taking a look at earnings season.

While it’s easy to look at companies like Apple, whose earnings reports this last quarter were truly remarkable, Fisher Investments is cautiously optimistic that this earnings season will show the US is still well positioned for continued economic growth.  I, for one, hope they’re correct.  In the meantime, I will be paying attention to what the companies report, and developing my own ideas as to what this means over the longer term.  It should be an interesting week regardless of the outcome.

For those of you who follow the stock market, you may know that 110 companies are set to report on their Q1 earnings for 2011 this week.  Fisher Investments provides some interesting food for thought throughout the article.

Here are some items I found interesting from the article:

1)     Investors shouldn’t expect to see the same extraordinary earnings growth of the last several quarters. Consensus expectations are for 12% year-over-year profit growth in Q1 2011 and an 8% rise in revenue. Given profits were up 31% overall for 2010, should less vaunted profit growth be cause for disappointment? Not at all. First, note: After a very sharp rebound, by many measures, after-tax profits are at all-time highs.

2)     The US is still well positioned for continued economic growth. (S&P’s recent announcement on their negative US outlook was predicated largely on their concerns over the political process, not economic metrics, which remain overall expansionary. For more, see Fisher Investments MarketMinder’s recent cover story: “The Scarlet Letter.”) The same is true globally.

3)     The era of consecutive 30%+ quarterly profit growth is likely behind us—for this cycle at least. And profit growth, like stock returns, likely becomes more differentiated among sectors and narrower categories this year. But this is just a sign of a transition out of recovery and into expansion.

For the full article, check out this link:  http://www.marketminder.com/a/fisher-investments-fisher-investments-marketminder-our-eye-on-earnings/115e13ea-f840-43f3-8cc8-90adff898727.aspx.  Happy Earnings Season! –AWF

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20/20 Money: See the Markets Clearly and Invest Better Than the Pros $27.95 A majority of investors—both experienced professionals and aspiring individuals—are blinded by conventional investing ideas that just don’t work. The fact is that many of us end up making costly mistakes because we don’t understand the basic ways markets work.What you need to succeed is a new investing lens, one that allows you to see things in a different way than most—one that helps you think differently. That’s why Michael Hanson, a senior editor and columnist for Fisher Investments’ MarketMinder.com, has written 20/20 Money.While understanding economic fundamentals and analyzing data are important aspects of investing, without a clear vision and well-developed philosophy to help drive decisions, you can fall short of achieving your investing goals.Through an interdisciplinary discussion ranging from stock market theory, mathematics, and history to systems theory, psychology, and science, 20/20 Money—the latest title from Fisher Investments Press—ventures outside the narrow realm of investing to help you gain the focus needed to help you in your efforts to protect your portfolio and produce superior long-term returns in even the most difficult market conditions. Page by page, you’ll discover how to:Use current research in neuroscience and behavioral psychology to understand how your perceptions and natural emotions are often contradictory to your best financial interestsApply the power of self-awareness and self-observation to build discipline and avoid common investing pitfallsNavigate the media and gauge investor sentiment—not only to get the information you need, but also to ignore distracting noiseAnalyze the stock market and economy as a complex, emergent, adaptive system (CEAS)Forecast stock markets in terms of probability and use pattern recognitionCreate a framework—or set of heuristics—for managing your own portfolioRecognize risk